Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
